Global Trends (2020–2024)Performance & Drivers:- Farmland: Avg. annual returns: 7–12% (combining crop yields + appreciation). Global prices up 15–20% YoY (2022–2024) due to food security fears and inflation hedging.
- Prospective Land: Speculative plays near urban expansion/renewable zones (solar/wind) surged 20–30% in growth corridors (U.S. Sun Belt, India's industrial zones).
- Sector Shifts: Water rights valuation up 50% in arid regions (2020–2024); carbon credit-linked farmland up 25% YoY (2023).
Risks: Climate volatility (drought/floods), subsidy dependence (EU/U.S.), and land-use regulation battles (e.g., Netherlands nitrogen crisis).
Russian Market (Post-2022)Sanctions Impact:- Farmland Boom: "Food sovereignty" drive up grain/oilseed planting. RUB-denominated values up 35% YoY (2022), stabilizing at ↑8–12% YoY (2023–2024).
- Prospective Land: industrial expansion fueled demand near logistics hubs. Prices up 15–20% (2024).
State Dominance:- Subsidies cover 40–60% of input costs; state banks (Rosselkhozbank) control 70% of agri-lending.
- foreign investor assets redistributed to domestic agri-holdings.
Asset Class ComparisonAttribute | Farmland/Prospective Land | vs. Real Estate | vs. Commodities | vs. Infrastructure |
Income Potential | Stable (4–7% yield + appreciation) | 6–9% (rental) | None (futures gain only) | 5–8% (regulated utilities) |
Liquidity | Very Low (illiquid parcels) | Low | High (futures) | Very Low |
Inflation Hedge | Strong (food/land scarcity) | Strong | Strong | Strong |
Geopolitical Risk | High (export bans, seizures) | High (expropriation) | Moderate | Extreme (nationalization) |
Carry Costs | Inputs, labor, taxes | Maintenance, taxes | Storage/roll costs | Regulatory compliance |
Russian Edge | State-backed demand (food security) | Warehouses viable | Domestic metals/grains | Sanctions-blocked |
Conclusion:Farmland offers inflation-resistant income globally but suffers
extreme illiquidity and climate exposure. In Russia, it thrives on state subsidies but traps capital domestically. For Saint Petersburg,
industrial/logistics land is constantly growing in high demand areas, the city expansion is creating new area and new logistic needs for the suburbs and all the region of Leningrad.